US new strategy not based on ground realities

By Farman Nawaz (Unpublished article)

Recently America has announced that there is need of negotiations with those Taliban which do not want to live under the yoke of Al-Qaeda. Now the questions arise “are there different groups in Taliban, like good and bad Taliban?” And who is supporting those so called good Taliban? If these good Taliban can survive on their own and face Al-Qaeda and Bad Taliban so why America is not able to defeat those bad Taliban? And what is the difference in the policies of these two kinds of Taliban?

Today America is supporting negotiations with good Taliban but after 9/11 “Loya Girga” of Afghanistan decided in the beginning to expel Osama out of Afghanistan but Mulla Omer opposed it after Molana Shamzai visit to Afghanistan, then why America did not supported “Loya Girga” at that time – a more powerful platform than good Taliban. Why America retained itself and Hamid Karzai administration not to kill Mulla Omer and Osama? Why drug business is blooming again in Afghanistan? All these questions have only one answer that is “America did not want to destroy Taliban movement at all.”

Terrorism card was used to enter this part of the world. It was preplanned that Taliban will not handover Osama to America, so America will have pretension to invade Afghanistan. Now again when Pakistan is determined to destroy Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, America has brought a new Afghan policy that accommodates terrorists in Kabul Government.

America’s Balochistan strategy is not acceptable to Pakistan because America is labeling separatist movement as terrorists. That is the reason that Pakistan has taken some steps such as Balochistan package and NFC award.  Question arises that why Taliban did not defend their strong hold in South Waziristan? Because it is decided that Taliban will have to play a role in Afghanistan that is the reason that Taliban has decided to protect its force for future.

Pakistan and America has no differences over Taliban future role in Afghanistan but the point of their difference is struggle between Pakistan and America, establishing strong links with Taliban leadership. The present war on terror is to create more supporters in Taliban movement. Pakistan and America are trying their best to kill each other opponents in Taliban so that in future they can influence Taliban in Afghanistan.

We must keep in mind that any coalition based on negative interests can not go for long. Regional powers have joined hands to tackle this new unity of Pakistan, Taliban and America. There are many aspects that can create gap between Pakistan and America in future. America’s intention to label separatists groups in Balochistan as terrorists can create a havoc in our relations with America. The recent change in Pakistan army attitude to settle Balochistan issue is the manifestation of this fear.

Now there are anti Pak-army elements in Taliban fighting American proxy war. These elements will create problems if Taliban are given free hand in some provinces of Afghanistan again.

The withdrawal of Indian troops from Kashmir shows that India has established healthy links with Hurayat Conference bypassing Pakistan. Pakistan in the past has used non state elements in Kashmir but in future any such adventure can not create space for Pakistan in Kashmir. So Pakistan does not need non state actors for longer term in future. But America has several times issued statements that there are chances of Indo Pak war. The aim of these statements is to keep Pakistan away from eliminating Taliban in the western side. So that they can be utilized in Afghanistan and giving Pakistan a clue to use Taliban in Kashmir.

American policy shows that they need terrorist presence in this region. Time and again it is stated by America that Afghan war can not be won without Pakistan, means Pakistan should refrain from eliminating TTP. This is the point of difference again. But still there are some elements in Pakistan army that support Jihadi elements. But on the whole Pakistan army has come to the conclusion that Taliban can only fight, they can’t govern a state. And secondly regional powers will not allow Talibanization in the region again.

This new development will keep Pakistan army away from terrorist elements. We can surely say that Obama new policy and terrorism card will fail in recent future.


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